Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
